Evidence of Republican weakness continues to materialize. The expected “red wave” failed to appear in the 2022 election. Instead, Democrats had one of the best midterm performances of a President’s party in the last century. As I pointed out in a recent blog, “It has always been true that in the mid-term election, the party in power loses. In every election since World War II, the President’s party has lost an average of 26 seats in the House, and an average of four seats in the Senate.” But not this year. The election was very close. Democrats still control the Senate but only won 213 seats in the House of Representatives; the Republicans won 220, a tiny majority.
I conclude that Trump’s damage to the Republican party is severe and permanent. My expectation is that the GOP I have known all my life is on its last legs. It will be replaced by a new Republican party which will reject Trump and his supporters. But my guess is that the party is so damaged that it will be a good many years before it can compete effectively with the Democrats.
We’ll know when we see the results of the 2024 election. My forecast is that the Democrats will in by a landslide.