Forecasts and predictions about the coming election by columnists, savants, and op-ed writers vary widely. Conventional wisdom is that the party in power—in this case, the Democrats—always loses to the opposition in the midterm election. But a few in the press are saying that the Republicans are so damaged by Trump that they will lose seats in Congress next month. Polling is so variable that it’s hard to tell.
My own sense is that many Americans are so disgusted with Trump and his supporters that the Democrats will win a substantial victory in 2022. But as of October 19, 78 percent of Republicans want to see Trump run for president in 2024, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll. Another recent poll shows President Biden with a 90 percent approval rating among Democrats. And we know that Democrats substantially outnumber Republicans—in 2020 (the most recent figures I could find), Gallup polling found that 31 percent of Americans identified as Democrats, 25 percent identified as Republican, and 41 percent as Independent. And yet another poll found that just 28 percent of independents believe Trump should run for office again, while more than two-thirds (67 percent) say he should not.
Trump’s rapidly growing legal problems make it seem likely that he will soon be indicted and probably convicted for various crimes. To the degree that those trends grow before the election, to that same degree the likelihood of Republican defeat increases.
So polls notwithstanding, I expect a substantial Democratic victory next month. How big that win is depends in part on how bad the news about Trump is.