All the polling I’ve looked at suggests that the Republicans will take back the Senate and the House of Representatives in November. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight,for example, forecasts Republican victory. And Republicans raised $248,000,000 last year to pay for campaigns. I have no numbers for this year, but I’m sure the amount will be, by November, even greater.
The Republicans are gaining favor despite President Biden’s impressive achievements for which he gets little credit. Part of the reason for that is that Biden fails to capitalize on his successes. Another part is that Democrats are forever wrangling among themselves and fail to come together while the Republicans are quick to unify. And Republicans have the money to plaster advertising everywhere.
Despite all that, I can’t help but believe the Democrats will dominate in November. The main reason is that the Republican record is catastrophically bad. First came the Trump presidency with its endless disasters crowned by Trump’s 30,573 lies during his presidency—averaging about 21 lies a day. Then came the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, incited by Trump and carried out by his supporters, which resulted in at least seven deaths. Bald-faced lies followed. The Republican National Committee officially declared that the attack on the Capitol and events that led to it were “legitimate political discourse” and rebuked two lawmakers in the party who condemned the riot and the role of Trump in spreading the election lies that fueled it.
Meanwhile, it’s public knowledge that Republicans led by Mitch McConnell are trying to pass 489 voter suppression bills in 49 states. And 121 House Republicans and 7 Republican Senators voted against certifying Joe Biden’s unmistakable victory in the 2020 election. Meanwhile, 43 Republican senators voted to acquit Trump of all charges in the Senate Impeachment Trial despite ample evidence of his guilt.
How bad does a political party’s record have to be for voters to turn against it? So polls notwithstanding, I foresee a sizable victory for the Democrats come November.
I welcome readers’ views.