Despite colossal effort on the part of the Republicans, their appeal to working-class people is rapidly weakening. More and more people see through the Republicans’ positions and realize that the Republicans are working to restore their control even if it requires lying and hiding the truth at an unprecedented scale. Why else would the Republicans block a national commission to investigate the January 6 Trump-incited attack on the U.S. Capitol? Why did they twice acquit Trump of impeachment charges in the face of overwhelming evidence? And why did 147 Republicans in Congress vote to overturn the proven validity of the November election? Republicans, in other words, insist on cleaving to the Great Lie—that Trump won the election—in the face of undeniable evidence to the contrary. In sum, their actions are inviting more and more people to desert the Grand Old Party.
To the degree that Trump continues to hold the Republican party in his iron grip, the party will continue to decline. According to a Washington Post article in January, Trump’s false or misleading claims totaled 30,573 over his four years in office. And he encourages violence against his opponents. Vox reports that “dozens of people enacted violence in Trump’s name in the years before the Capitol attack, according to a 2020 report from ABC News.”
In short, Republican allegiance to Trump and his values portends its defeat. Trump’s popularity is waning by the day. Unless the party breaks decisively with Trump, its supporters will dwindle.
My sense is that the Republican Party as we know is will soon cease to exist. And unless it alters its strategy, it will remain the minority party for the foreseeable future.